2023 was an exciting year both for our company and the whole industry. In a sense, it was the "year of ChatGPT" where we collectively tasted what our AI-enabled future has in store for us. From hype to protests, from awe to disappointment – it felt like we were able to see all the effects such a revolutionary technology can have on society play out in front of us in just a year.
So naturally, I'm asking myself what 2024 has in store for us. What will be this year's defining trend? I will make some predictions in this piece today, but next year, we will return to this post and see what (if anything) I got right.
Let's get guessing!
AI will get an interface
Yes, I hear you: Chat is also an interface; I grant you this. But we will go beyond this very early and very limited first interface paradigm this year.
I know this will come as a blow to everyone who worked hard to become "Prompt Engineers" during the last couple of months, but if AI is going to be a mainstream thing, it needs to evolve further. People don't want to learn the correct words to get to the results that they have in mind – they just want to press a button, turn a knob, or push a slider.
This is true not only for image generation (where we already see advancements) but also for text-based tools. This will help us get our intended results faster and expose all sorts of useful and previously unknown options to users who were not as adventurous with their prompts before.
I see you in VR
Is it the year of VR? Is this time for real? I don't know. But if someone can make it so, it's Apple. With the release of the Vision Pro headset, we will undoubtedly see a heightened interest in the topic.
Availability is severely limited, though, with the headset's release only for the American market. The price will also make widespread adoption unlikely. However, I believe that it will kick off developer interest in a major way. Geeks love to play with new tech, especially if it holds the promise of iPhone-grade scale later on.
A return to the (federated) homepage
Social Media as we know it has run its course. I know that saying this sounds insane: Everyone around me is using Instagram, TikTok is a big thing, and heck, even Facebook has 3 billion (!) monthly active users. But between the Twitter implosion of 2023 and the general shift towards closed group chats or private photo-sharing apps, I cannot shake the feeling that we have crossed a threshold.
This is especially true for people who create content: Depending on other platforms was always a gamble, but after 2023, it feels even more so. This has already led to rediscovering the personal homepage – a place you control and own yourself. The thing to watch out for in 2024 is how these homepages will integrate into a broader web. Older technologies like RSS are being resurfaced, but new ones, like ActivityPub, open up new, more resilient ways of connecting homepages and readers. And in 2024, we will see even more of that.
---
So, there you have it! Three predictions that I will most likely be embarrassed by later this year! What do you think will shape our industry this year? Let me know.